Actuarial Studies: Estimated impact of AHCA (2017)

This Office of the Actuary has estimated the financial and coverage effects through 2026 of selected provisions of the “American Health Care Act of 2017” (H.R. 1628), which was passed by the House on May 4, 2017. Included are the estimated impacts on net Federal expenditures, health insurance coverage, Medicaid enrollment and spending by eligibility group, gross and net premiums and out-of-pocket costs in the individual market, total national health expenditures, and the financial status of the Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund. Not included in the estimates are the impacts of provisions that would affect other parts of the Federal Budget—such as those related changes in revenues associated with repealing taxes or fees that do not have a direct effect on the Medicare or Medicaid program—and Federal administrative costs.

The Office of the Actuary has prepared these memoranda in our longstanding capacity as an independent technical advisor to both the Administration and the Congress. The costs, savings, and coverage impacts shown here represent our best estimates for the AHCA, H.R. 1628. We hope that the information presented in this memorandum will be of value to the public and policy makers as they debate the implications of the American Health Care Act. The statements, estimates, and other information provided in these memoranda are those of the Office of the Actuary and do not represent an official position of the Department of Health and Human Services or the Administration.