Content created by Assistant Secretary for Health (ASH)
Welcome to the eleventh edition of the Climate and Health Outlook from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Climate Change and Health Equity (OCCHE). The Climate and Health Outlook is an effort to inform health professionals and the public on how our health may be affected in the coming months by climate events and provide resources to take proactive action. This webpage includes additional resources and information excluded from the PDF summary, including regional prospective forecasts.
Download the Climate and Health Outlook for June 2023
Image
Image source: https://scenarios.globalchange.gov/regions_nca4
U.S. Seasonal Forecast for Health: June 2023
Regional health forecasts for extreme heat, hurricane, wildfire, and drought
Alaska: Drought is absent across Alaska, and no development is expected by the end of June. Above normal wildland fire* potential is forecast for much of eastern Alaska.
Northwest: Counties in Idaho (1) and Oregon (2) are projected to have more than five heat exceedance days** in June. Drought is favored to persist in parts of northern Idaho, much of Oregon, and a small portion of northeast Washington. Above normal wildland fire* potential is forecast for much of central and eastern Washington into central Oregon.
Southwest: Counties in California (4), Utah (5), New Mexico (12), and Arizona (13) are projected to have more than five heat exceedance days** in June. Drought is favored to persist in much of southern Nevada and southcentral Utah and small portions of southern California, northwest Arizona, and northwest New Mexico. Drought improvement and removal is likely in parts of eastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado. Below normal wildland fire potential is forecast across much of California, northern Arizona, western New Mexico, and most of the mountains in Utah and southern Nevada.
Hawai’i and Pacific Islands: The central Pacific is forecasted to experience an above-average hurricane season. Drought development is likely across parts of Hawai’i. Normal significant wildland fire* potential is also expected.
Northern Great Plains: One county in Montana is projected to have more than five heat exceedance days** in June. Drought is favored to persist in portions of western Montana, southeastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska. Drought improvement and removal is likely in much of Nebraska, portions of Montana and Wyoming, and small portions of southwest North Dakota and South Dakota. Normal significant wildland fire* potential is also expected.
Southern Great Plains: Counties in Texas (36) are projected to have more than five heat exceedance days** in June. Drought improvement and removal is favored for much of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Normal significant wildland fire* potential is also expected.
Midwest: Drought is favored to persist in parts of central Missouri, western Iowa, and a small portion of northeastern Illinois. Drought development is likely in much of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and parts of southern Wisconsin, southern Michigan, and northern Missouri. Above normal wildland fire* potential is forecast for much of Michigan, as well as northern Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Southeast: The Atlantic basin is forecasted to have a near-normal hurricane season. Drought development is likely in parts of northern Virginia. Drought is favored to persist in a small portion of northern Virginia. Drought removal is favored in parts of Florida and Louisiana. Normal significant wildland fire* potential is also expected.
Northeast: Drought development is likely in parts of northern Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and in much of Pennsylvania, New York, and Vermont. Drought is favored to persist in a small portion of southern Maryland. Normal significant wildland fire* potential is also expected.
Caribbean: The Atlantic basin is forecasted to have a near-normal hurricane season. Drought is favored to persist in portions of western Puerto Rico. Normal significant wildland fire* potential is also expected.
*Smoke from wildfires can impact health hundreds of miles from site of the fire.
**A “heat exceedance day” is when the daily maximum temperature is above the 95th percentile value of the historical temperature distribution in that county.
You can learn more about climate hazards, the ways they impact health, and resources to protect yourself and your community here:
You can also check our 2022 Retrospective: Heat, Drought, and Wildfire.
Previous editions of the Climate and Health Outlook are also available.
Thank you to the partners who provide invaluable information, expertise, and data for the Climate and Health Outlook series, including the Administration for Children and Families; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health; Department of Agriculture; Environmental Protection Agency; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, National Integrated Drought Information System, National Integrated Heat Health Information System, and National Water Center; National Interagency Fire Center; Bureau of Land Management; Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration; United States Geological Survey; the California Air Resources Board; the Oregon Health Authority; the San Mateo County Health Department; the USA National Phenology Network; Atlanta Allergy & Asthma; and the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology.