Climate and Health Outlook

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Welcome to the twenty-fifth edition of the Climate and Health Outlook from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Climate Change and Health Equity (OCCHE). The Climate and Health Outlook is an effort to inform health professionals and the public on how our health may be affected in the coming months by climate events and provide resources to take proactive action. This edition provides forecasts for heat, drought, and wildfire in September 2024 as well as how to protect yourself and others’ health from these climate hazards along with hurricanes, severe inland storms, flooding, Vibrio, and mosquito-borne diseases. This webpage includes additional resources and information excluded from the PDF summary, including regional prospective forecasts.

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OCCHE and the HHS Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) launched the Climate and Health Outlook Portal to accompany this publication series. This tool features interactive maps with county-level heat, wildfire, and drought forecasts for the current month along with county-level data on individual risk factors that may make people more vulnerable to negative health outcomes from these climate hazards. OCCHE plans to update the tool with new features including additional climate-related hazard and risk factor data and welcomes user feedback on how it can be improved—please email us at OCCHE@hhs.gov to let us know what you think.

Visit the Climate and Health Outlook Portal

Image source: https://scenarios.globalchange.gov/regions_nca4

U.S. Seasonal Forecast for Health: September 2024

Regional forecasts for heat, drought, wildfire, and hurricanes:

Alaska: Above-normal temperatures are favored in northern Alaska and below-normal temperatures are favored along the west coast of Alaska during September. Moderate drought in southeastern Alaska is forecast to improve. Normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for Alaska.

Northwest: Two counties in Oregon and one county in Idaho are expected to have five or more extreme heat* days in September. Drought persistence is forecast for much of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho with drought improvement and removal forecast for the western fringes of the drought areas in Washington and Oregon. Above normal significant wildfire** potential is forecast across southern Idaho.

Southwest: Nine counties in California, six counties in Arizona, and three counties in Utah are expected to have five or more extreme heat days in September. Drought persistence is forecast for existing drought areas in northernmost California into northwestern Nevada and in scattered areas in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah with additional development forecast in a portion of Arizona into New Mexico. Drought improvement and removal is forecast in southeastern New Mexico. Above normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for western Arizona, much of California, northern Nevada, and northwestern Utah.

Hawai’i: All of the Hawai’ian islands are expected to experience equal chances of below, near, and above-normal temperatures in September. Drought persistence is forecast across central and western Hawai’i, while drought removal and improvement are forecast across eastern Hawai’i. Above normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for the lee sides of Hawai’i. The central Pacific is most likely to experience a below-normal hurricane season.

Caribbean: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are likely to experience above normal temperatures in September. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are forecast to remain drought-free. Normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for Puerto Rico. The Atlantic basin is highly likely to have an above-normal hurricane season.

Northern Great Plains: No counties in the Northern Great Plains are expected to have five or more extreme heat days in September. Drought persistence is forecast for existing drought areas across Montana, Wyoming, and western Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota with additional development forecast for northeastern Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota. Above normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for portions of southern Montana into northern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota.

Southern Great Plains: Five counties in Texas are expected to have five or more extreme heat days in September. Drought persistence is forecast for existing drought areas in Kansas plus most in Oklahoma, and portions of the northern and far western Texas. Drought improvement and removal is forecast across a small southern portion of Oklahoma plus most of Texas. Below normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for southeastern Texas.

Southeast: One county in Florida is expected to have five or more extreme heat days in September. Drought persistence is forecast for portions of existing drought areas in Arkansas and northern Virginia, with drought improvement and removal forecast across most of the rest of the Southeast. Above normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for most of Arkansas and Mississippi, western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi; below normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for southwestern Louisiana. The Atlantic basin is highly likely to have an above-normal hurricane season.

Midwest: No counties in the Midwest are expected to have five or more extremely hot days in September. Drought persistence is forecast for existing drought areas in Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri, with additional drought development forecast across most of Ohio and Indiana into southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri plus northwestern Iowa into the southwestern tip of Minnesota. Above normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for southeastern Ohio.

Northeast: No counties in the Northwest are expected to have five or more extremely hot days in September. Drought persistence is forecast across the northern half of West Virginia into western Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania; drought improvement and removal is forecast for the southern half of West Virginia. Above normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for most of West Virginia into western Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania.

* An “extreme heat day” is when the daily maximum temperature is above the 95th percentile value of the historical temperature distribution in that county.
** Smoke from wildfires can impact health hundreds of miles from site of the fire.

Most heat forecasts are derived from the Centers for Disease Control’s (CDC’s) Heat & Health Tracker, but since it does not include heat forecasts for the non-continental U.S., the heat forecast for Alaska is based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) 30-day outlook, the heat forecast for Hawai’i is based on NOAA’s Hawaiian Outlook, and the heat forecast for the Caribbean is based on NOAA’s Central America Multi-Model Ensemble forecast. Heat forecasts for additional Pacific Islands will be incorporated as they become available from NOAA. Drought forecasts are derived from NOAA’s Official Drought Outlook, wildfire forecasts from the National Interagency Coordination Center, and hurricanes from NOAA’s 2024 Hurricane Season Outlook.

Thank you to the partners who provide invaluable information, expertise, and data for the Climate and Health Outlook series, including the Administration for Children and Families; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health; Department of Agriculture including but not limited to the Forest Service; Environmental Protection Agency; the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, National Integrated Drought Information System, National Integrated Heat Health Information System, and National Water Center; National Interagency Fire Center; Bureau of Land Management; Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration; United States Geological Survey; the California Air Resources Board; the Oregon Health Authority; the San Mateo County Health Department; the USA National Phenology Network; Atlanta Allergy & Asthma; American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology; the Region 2 Pediatric Environmental Health Specialty Unit; the California Department of Public Health; the Maricopa County Department of Public Health; University of Nebraska Medical Center; and the National Park Service.